Futureview1

Slip Points & Fault Lines

If the future could be smootly predicted, futurists could do it all the time, Moores Law notwithstanding. Of course the reason is because innovation is somewhat discontinuous, and as James Burke is fond of pointing out cross-polinated. I know of a piece of software developed for aerospace planning that was adapted for use in paying healthcare claims. An old idea from one field is presented over dinner, is heard by differing disciplines and applied in novel ways that no one ever intended.

Plus, whenever an innovation is implemented it has to either a) build its own infrastructure or b) rely on what came before to enable it. Neither a nor b is generally easier or more correct, the choice depends on the innovation. But.. unless the field is green b can be more likely. The reason trolly cars are the width of two draft horses butts has to do with the horses that pulled them originally.

posted by Tom Curtin @ 9:37 AM