Bird Flu
Recent stories in the NY Times indicate that bird infections have spread to Romania and Turkey. Which has led to the EU banning poultry imports from Turkey. I wonder if that includes Turkeys from Turkey? It seems rather futile, given that wild birds are winging their way blithely over borders.
I recall discussions of the impact of the 1918 pandemic. My great-aunt died as a result of it, as did many poor irish. According to the stories it left many, many orphans in its wake. I was trying to think why. It seems like young adults would have been healthier, so why so many orphans.
One thing that has been playing in my mind are the alternative futures impact that a pandemic can hold. Preparations for a real pandemic are of course foremost on people and politicians minds, but its interesting to consider the not so invisible hand of the grim reaper. As I write in the coming stories, I'd like to speculate on what could happen depending on the demographics of the disease profile.
Some other articles include
The 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Bird flu virus: What you need to know
Scientists warn of possibility of drug-resistant avian flu
Colombia Finds First Cases of Bird Flu
Bird flu ‘doesn’t apply for a visa to go travel’
Tuesday at Forrester
Thinking about measurement and analytics. Mike Gilpin of Forrester began the morning talking about IT measurement of itself. Its seems like IT spends its time servicing the customer, but not looking closely at its processes and its own efficiencies. Sometimes simply seeing the data, seeing the statistics can make such an incredible difference.
I was just thinking about the vast numbers of restaurants that open and close every year. Its not often the food that is the problem, its the analytics. If you understand the cost side and match costs to income, there's profitability and success. Failure to do that will lead to a "closed" sign.
IT of course doesn't have the luxury of closing, they have to deliver the results, but analytics could make a huge difference. Simple understandable metrics that can bump activity in the right direction can be the best
Slip Points & Fault Lines
If the future could be smootly predicted, futurists could do it all the time, Moores Law notwithstanding. Of course the reason is because innovation is somewhat discontinuous, and as James Burke is fond of pointing out cross-polinated. I know of a piece of software developed for aerospace planning that was adapted for use in paying healthcare claims. An old idea from one field is presented over dinner, is heard by differing disciplines and applied in novel ways that no one ever intended.
Plus, whenever an innovation is implemented it has to either a) build its own infrastructure or b) rely on what came before to enable it. Neither a nor b is generally easier or more correct, the choice depends on the innovation. But.. unless the field is green b can be more likely. The reason trolly cars are the width of two draft horses butts has to do with the horses that pulled them originally.
Adding Up The Future
I've been busy creating a new piece of software that does some pretty simple things, but that tells me a lot about my future. It starts with my geneology file and takes lets you simply walk foreward or backwards, year by year showing how old people were/will be. For the past, it shows historical events, for the future likely events (like suzie graduates from high school). It color codes the boxes, so you can quickly see as people pass from one age group to another. Its already taught me a lot about my family history, calling into question the neat, tidy family stories of the past, illuminating the relationships, the groups. Time Line is almost done.. Let me know if you're interested in looking at it.
